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	<title>Comments on: H1N1 and Irrationality</title>
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	<link>http://www.four-pillars.ca/2009/11/03/h1n1-and-irrationality/</link>
	<description>Investing and Personal Finance</description>
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		<title>By: Chris</title>
		<link>http://www.four-pillars.ca/2009/11/03/h1n1-and-irrationality/comment-page-1/#comment-44720</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Nov 2009 18:37:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.four-pillars.ca/?p=4556#comment-44720</guid>
		<description>In regards to the calculation of swine flu (or any other flu for that matter) being off.
If a single case of the flu is found during the spring / summer / fall / winter, by definition the flu season is year round. So, let&#039;s say it&#039;s never hit for 3 months out of the year, althought I&#039;ve known people to get it throughout the year.
According to this US article: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/
There have been a total of 877 deaths (and 22,364 cases) due to Influenza. Not a specific type, but ALL cases.

The current population of the US is 307,956,226 (http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html).

Now, the chances are as follows:
getting the flu: 1 in 0.00007262 or 1 chance out of 13,770
dying from the flu: 1 in 0.000002848 or 1 out of every 351,147 people

That&#039;s a pretty small chance of getting the flu, much less dying from it.

Some background on me and my family:
Neither of our 4 children have ever received any flu shot. They have contracted it from other children in their schools, but have gotten over it in just a few days. And one of them has a mild case asthma.
I however had a bad case of asthma when I was young. I would sometime wake up in the back of an ambulance with an oxygen mask on my face. This is in spite of having received some kind of steriod (via  a shot about once every 2 weeks for 3-4 years), that was supposed to prevent the asthma attacks I experienced. My choice was to control my breathing (learning how to get by on less breathing), while I was breathing OK ... and when I thought of it. I also have noted over the years that certain food dyes can make my (and our daughter&#039;s) breathing more difficult. They are FD&amp;C Blue #2 (Indigotine), FD&amp;C Red #40 (Allura Red), FD&amp;C Yellow #5 (Tartrazine, Sunset Yellow)

The only time I have ever contracted the flu was coincidentally the same year that I received the flu shot (the only time in my life).

As for asthma and possible triggers, feel free to visit this link I found in a Google search: http://www.aafa.org/display.cfm?id=9&amp;sub=20&amp;cont=285
or 
http://www.occupationalasthma.com/occupational_asthma_viewreference.aspx?id=3466</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In regards to the calculation of swine flu (or any other flu for that matter) being off.<br />
If a single case of the flu is found during the spring / summer / fall / winter, by definition the flu season is year round. So, let&#8217;s say it&#8217;s never hit for 3 months out of the year, althought I&#8217;ve known people to get it throughout the year.<br />
According to this US article: <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/" rel="nofollow">http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/</a><br />
There have been a total of 877 deaths (and 22,364 cases) due to Influenza. Not a specific type, but ALL cases.</p>
<p>The current population of the US is 307,956,226 (<a href="http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html</a>).</p>
<p>Now, the chances are as follows:<br />
getting the flu: 1 in 0.00007262 or 1 chance out of 13,770<br />
dying from the flu: 1 in 0.000002848 or 1 out of every 351,147 people</p>
<p>That&#8217;s a pretty small chance of getting the flu, much less dying from it.</p>
<p>Some background on me and my family:<br />
Neither of our 4 children have ever received any flu shot. They have contracted it from other children in their schools, but have gotten over it in just a few days. And one of them has a mild case asthma.<br />
I however had a bad case of asthma when I was young. I would sometime wake up in the back of an ambulance with an oxygen mask on my face. This is in spite of having received some kind of steriod (via  a shot about once every 2 weeks for 3-4 years), that was supposed to prevent the asthma attacks I experienced. My choice was to control my breathing (learning how to get by on less breathing), while I was breathing OK &#8230; and when I thought of it. I also have noted over the years that certain food dyes can make my (and our daughter&#8217;s) breathing more difficult. They are FD&amp;C Blue #2 (Indigotine), FD&amp;C Red #40 (Allura Red), FD&amp;C Yellow #5 (Tartrazine, Sunset Yellow)</p>
<p>The only time I have ever contracted the flu was coincidentally the same year that I received the flu shot (the only time in my life).</p>
<p>As for asthma and possible triggers, feel free to visit this link I found in a Google search: <a href="http://www.aafa.org/display.cfm?id=9&amp;sub=20&amp;cont=285" rel="nofollow">http://www.aafa.org/display.cfm?id=9&amp;sub=20&amp;cont=285</a><br />
or<br />
<a href="http://www.occupationalasthma.com/occupational_asthma_viewreference.aspx?id=3466" rel="nofollow">http://www.occupationalasthma.com/occupational_asthma_viewreference.aspx?id=3466</a></p>
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		<title>By: David</title>
		<link>http://www.four-pillars.ca/2009/11/03/h1n1-and-irrationality/comment-page-1/#comment-43803</link>
		<dc:creator>David</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 07:24:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.four-pillars.ca/?p=4556#comment-43803</guid>
		<description>You should read this comic =).  Agrees right along with you

http://www.calamitiesofnature.com/archive/?c=289</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You should read this comic =).  Agrees right along with you</p>
<p><a href="http://www.calamitiesofnature.com/archive/?c=289" rel="nofollow">http://www.calamitiesofnature.com/archive/?c=289</a></p>
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		<title>By: Jessica</title>
		<link>http://www.four-pillars.ca/2009/11/03/h1n1-and-irrationality/comment-page-1/#comment-43212</link>
		<dc:creator>Jessica</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Nov 2009 22:05:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.four-pillars.ca/?p=4556#comment-43212</guid>
		<description>Wait wait wait.  Isn&#039;t it killing the elderly?  The elderly are dying more from it?  Or is is 25 to 49?  Or 18 to 24?  Or 5 to 18?  Or 0 to 5?  
I am soooo confused?  
More so I hate my friends.  One group says, (Sudo-scientists raw foodist vegan holistic artists ) Don&#039;t get vaccine formaldehyde mercury autism paralysis flu and death will happen and all of it is hype and it won&#039;t guard you if the flu mutates.
Other group is saying (Nurses, family, doctors, young parents) get the vaccine it is safe the who would never allow a potentially dangerous vaccination blah blah.

Some friends say:  Incubation period 4 hours before symptoms.
Other friends say 12 days (these are the people that don&#039;t believe in vaccinations by the way.)
 then some people say nothing to worry about you are young and healthy although the young and healthy (especially woman have a higher fatality rate)  But then they are saying in the news IT IS THE OLD IT IS THE OLD!  But when you read carefully the highest percentage is that of 25 to 49 BUT  the headlines is either THE OLD or THE YOUNG and although it is novel what with the young dying why then aren&#039;t 25 to 35 year old women   (men too?)  ON THE PRIORITY LIST!!!!!????? 

Unless of course the fatality rate for us isn&#039;t actually higher.  And why do my friends talk to matter of factly huh?  Should I call them on it?  I don&#039;t like it when people hand out falsities like bandaids

I don&#039;t think Ill get the vaccine until I get some answers  because I am clearly very confused....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wait wait wait.  Isn&#8217;t it killing the elderly?  The elderly are dying more from it?  Or is is 25 to 49?  Or 18 to 24?  Or 5 to 18?  Or 0 to 5?<br />
I am soooo confused?<br />
More so I hate my friends.  One group says, (Sudo-scientists raw foodist vegan holistic artists ) Don&#8217;t get vaccine formaldehyde mercury autism paralysis flu and death will happen and all of it is hype and it won&#8217;t guard you if the flu mutates.<br />
Other group is saying (Nurses, family, doctors, young parents) get the vaccine it is safe the who would never allow a potentially dangerous vaccination blah blah.</p>
<p>Some friends say:  Incubation period 4 hours before symptoms.<br />
Other friends say 12 days (these are the people that don&#8217;t believe in vaccinations by the way.)<br />
 then some people say nothing to worry about you are young and healthy although the young and healthy (especially woman have a higher fatality rate)  But then they are saying in the news IT IS THE OLD IT IS THE OLD!  But when you read carefully the highest percentage is that of 25 to 49 BUT  the headlines is either THE OLD or THE YOUNG and although it is novel what with the young dying why then aren&#8217;t 25 to 35 year old women   (men too?)  ON THE PRIORITY LIST!!!!!????? </p>
<p>Unless of course the fatality rate for us isn&#8217;t actually higher.  And why do my friends talk to matter of factly huh?  Should I call them on it?  I don&#8217;t like it when people hand out falsities like bandaids</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think Ill get the vaccine until I get some answers  because I am clearly very confused&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>By: The Financial Blogger &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Financial Ramblings</title>
		<link>http://www.four-pillars.ca/2009/11/03/h1n1-and-irrationality/comment-page-1/#comment-43199</link>
		<dc:creator>The Financial Blogger &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Financial Ramblings</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:32:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.four-pillars.ca/?p=4556#comment-43199</guid>
		<description>[...] Pillars has the most interesting article about the H1N1 flu. Did you know that we have more change of getting struck by a lightning (like the Canadiens did [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Pillars has the most interesting article about the H1N1 flu. Did you know that we have more change of getting struck by a lightning (like the Canadiens did [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Let&#8217;s be logical about the swine flu</title>
		<link>http://www.four-pillars.ca/2009/11/03/h1n1-and-irrationality/comment-page-1/#comment-43155</link>
		<dc:creator>Let&#8217;s be logical about the swine flu</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Nov 2009 17:11:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.four-pillars.ca/?p=4556#comment-43155</guid>
		<description>[...] H1N1 and irrationality [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] H1N1 and irrationality [...]</p>
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		<title>By: FW</title>
		<link>http://www.four-pillars.ca/2009/11/03/h1n1-and-irrationality/comment-page-1/#comment-42220</link>
		<dc:creator>FW</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:56:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.four-pillars.ca/?p=4556#comment-42220</guid>
		<description>A couple of points to consider -- seasonal flu usually kills elderly people, and those in nursing homes. H1N1 is killing young, healthy people and children. To be a financial opportunist, maybe the nursing homes will be more full this winter.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A couple of points to consider &#8212; seasonal flu usually kills elderly people, and those in nursing homes. H1N1 is killing young, healthy people and children. To be a financial opportunist, maybe the nursing homes will be more full this winter.</p>
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		<title>By: Wooly Woman</title>
		<link>http://www.four-pillars.ca/2009/11/03/h1n1-and-irrationality/comment-page-1/#comment-41795</link>
		<dc:creator>Wooly Woman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:36:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.four-pillars.ca/?p=4556#comment-41795</guid>
		<description>I just expected a p value Mr/Soon to be Dr Cheap. Hahahahaha. You can bash my numbers (I am posting a rare blog post just so you can do this, and NO, I did not calc. a p value), it is one of those cases where, while the numbers are concrete in themselves ( 92 deaths is pretty clear), it is how you choose to present the numbers  that can change the story.
Interesting debate, I am amazed I haven&#039;t seen more on this subject, but my blog reading is limited these days.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I just expected a p value Mr/Soon to be Dr Cheap. Hahahahaha. You can bash my numbers (I am posting a rare blog post just so you can do this, and NO, I did not calc. a p value), it is one of those cases where, while the numbers are concrete in themselves ( 92 deaths is pretty clear), it is how you choose to present the numbers  that can change the story.<br />
Interesting debate, I am amazed I haven&#8217;t seen more on this subject, but my blog reading is limited these days.</p>
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		<title>By: The Rat</title>
		<link>http://www.four-pillars.ca/2009/11/03/h1n1-and-irrationality/comment-page-1/#comment-41760</link>
		<dc:creator>The Rat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:19:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.four-pillars.ca/?p=4556#comment-41760</guid>
		<description>Nice thread; the funny thing is that I&#039;m in the same boat as Mike in that I too wrote a post on H1N1 set to publish for tomorrow!

I think the poor kid that died not long after a hockey game sent the country into more of a hysteria-oriented mood, and perhaps rightfully so given some of the risks this virus poses. I think Harper&#039;s remarks a few weeks back also confused a lot of Canadians about whether he would get the vaccination or not.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nice thread; the funny thing is that I&#8217;m in the same boat as Mike in that I too wrote a post on H1N1 set to publish for tomorrow!</p>
<p>I think the poor kid that died not long after a hockey game sent the country into more of a hysteria-oriented mood, and perhaps rightfully so given some of the risks this virus poses. I think Harper&#8217;s remarks a few weeks back also confused a lot of Canadians about whether he would get the vaccination or not.</p>
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		<title>By: Millionaireby45</title>
		<link>http://www.four-pillars.ca/2009/11/03/h1n1-and-irrationality/comment-page-1/#comment-41680</link>
		<dc:creator>Millionaireby45</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:52:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.four-pillars.ca/?p=4556#comment-41680</guid>
		<description>I thought I would add my two cents.  To be upfront, I plan to get the H1N1 vaccine.  Having said that, I get the flu shot every year as well.  I also wear a helmet when I ride my bike, wear my seatbelt in the car, and look both ways before I cross the road.  To me it is simply taking an extra precaution.  I refused to wait in line for 6 hours though.  Once all the hysteria is relented then I will go and get the shot.  

I am actually very surprised at the number of conspiracy theorists out there.  I wont go into details but I have heard some crazy stories.  

Finally, I do find it amusing that the government spent all this money on a marketing campaign to tell everyone that they need to get vaccinated and informed them about all the dangers of H1N1 and then the same government is shocked when people actually listen to them and decide that they will in fact get vaccinated.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I thought I would add my two cents.  To be upfront, I plan to get the H1N1 vaccine.  Having said that, I get the flu shot every year as well.  I also wear a helmet when I ride my bike, wear my seatbelt in the car, and look both ways before I cross the road.  To me it is simply taking an extra precaution.  I refused to wait in line for 6 hours though.  Once all the hysteria is relented then I will go and get the shot.  </p>
<p>I am actually very surprised at the number of conspiracy theorists out there.  I wont go into details but I have heard some crazy stories.  </p>
<p>Finally, I do find it amusing that the government spent all this money on a marketing campaign to tell everyone that they need to get vaccinated and informed them about all the dangers of H1N1 and then the same government is shocked when people actually listen to them and decide that they will in fact get vaccinated.</p>
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		<title>By: Sampson</title>
		<link>http://www.four-pillars.ca/2009/11/03/h1n1-and-irrationality/comment-page-1/#comment-41672</link>
		<dc:creator>Sampson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:35:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.four-pillars.ca/?p=4556#comment-41672</guid>
		<description>See, it didn&#039;t take long for the conspiracy theorists to come out!  ;)

I suppose the government IS actually accelerating the fears.  I think the reality is that these types of illnesses WILL spread whether there are major attempts at wide-spread vaccination or not - just hope you&#039;re immune system is up to snuff and you don&#039;t end up a statistic ;)

What this really highlights is that if there really was an epidemic with moderate to high non-discriminate death rates, say 2-10% - we&#039;d be screwed.  Our government wouldn&#039;t roll out action efficiently, people would riot and probably get violent.  Man, all those movies I watched WERE true.  Time to get all Charlton Heston on you guys - where&#039;s my machine gun?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>See, it didn&#8217;t take long for the conspiracy theorists to come out!  <img src='http://www.four-pillars.ca/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>I suppose the government IS actually accelerating the fears.  I think the reality is that these types of illnesses WILL spread whether there are major attempts at wide-spread vaccination or not &#8211; just hope you&#8217;re immune system is up to snuff and you don&#8217;t end up a statistic <img src='http://www.four-pillars.ca/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>What this really highlights is that if there really was an epidemic with moderate to high non-discriminate death rates, say 2-10% &#8211; we&#8217;d be screwed.  Our government wouldn&#8217;t roll out action efficiently, people would riot and probably get violent.  Man, all those movies I watched WERE true.  Time to get all Charlton Heston on you guys &#8211; where&#8217;s my machine gun?</p>
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